Projecting future effects of land management, natural disturbance, and CO2 on woody encroachment and water availability in northern Great Plains grasslands
Maintaining the native prairie lands of the Northern Great Plains (NGP), which provide an important habitat for declining grassland species, requires anticipating the effects of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations and climate change on the region’s vegetation. Specifically, climate change threatens NGP grasslands by increasing the potential encroachment of native woody species into areas where they were previously only present in minor numbers. This project uses a dynamic vegetation model to simulate vegetation type (grassland, shrubland, woodland, and forest) for the NGP for a range of projected future climates and relevant management scenarios. Comparing results of these simulations will illustrate the sensitivity of woody encroachment projections to climate change factors. Improved understanding of the effects of increasing CO2, climate change, and land management practices on potential woody encroachment will be used to guide management practices to be most effective in protecting grassland habitat in the NGP into the future.