Quantitative forecasting of above- and below-ground climate change impacts at Wind Cave National Park

Human-driven climate change presents natural resource managers with great uncertainties. Planning and executing effective management in the face of these uncertainties requires approaches nimble enough to address a broad range of interacting factors yet scientifically rigorous enough to support decisions and actions when faced with public scrutiny. Complex interactions among management practices and climate further stymie managers trying to plan for the future.  Wind Cave National Park epitomizes this complexity hydrologically with its karst geology, sinking streams, and cave lakes, and ecologically with its prairie-forest ecotonal vegetation, large ungulate herds, and prescribed and wild fires.  This project partnered with Oregon State University and the Conservation Biology Institute to use hydrological and ecological simulation models to provide the park’s managers with plausible, quantitative projections of important park resources in future climates so that they could better incorporate climate change into their management planning.

Principal Investigator(s):

Amy Symstad

John F Stamm

Andrew J Long

Project Status:

Completed

Publications

Data




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