Quantitative forecasting of above- and below-ground climate change impacts at Wind Cave National Park
Human-driven climate change presents natural resource managers with great uncertainties. Planning and executing effective management in the face of these uncertainties requires approaches nimble enough to address a broad range of interacting factors yet scientifically rigorous enough to support decisions and actions when faced with public scrutiny. Complex interactions among management practices and climate further stymie managers trying to plan for the future. Wind Cave National Park epitomizes this complexity hydrologically with its karst geology, sinking streams, and cave lakes, and ecologically with its prairie-forest ecotonal vegetation, large ungulate herds, and prescribed and wild fires. This project partnered with Oregon State University and the Conservation Biology Institute to use hydrological and ecological simulation models to provide the park’s managers with plausible, quantitative projections of important park resources in future climates so that they could better incorporate climate change into their management planning.
John F Stamm
Andrew J Long
- Climate change and fire effects on a prairie-woodland ecotone: projecting species range shifts with a dynamic global vegetation model
- Multiple methods for multiple futures: Integrating qualitative scenario planning and quantitative simulation modeling for natural resource decision making
- Two Approaches for Incorporating Climate Change into Natural Resource Management Planning at Wind Cave National Park
- Vegetation projections for Wind Cave National Park with three future climate scenarios: Final report in completion of Task Agreement J8W07100052