Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center
Effects of Climate on Numbers of Northern Prairie Wetlands*
By
Diane L. Larson
National Biological Survey
Northern Prairie Science Center
8711 37th St. SE
Jamestown, ND 58401 USA
Abstract
The amount of water held in individual wetland basins depends not only on local
climate patterns but also on groundwater flow regime, soil permeability, and
basin size. Most wetland basins in the northern prairies hold water in some
years and are dry in others. To assess the potential effect of climate change
on the number of wetland basins holding water in a given year, one must first
determine how much of the variability in number of wet basins is accounted for
by climatic variables. I used multiple linear regression to examine the relationship
between climate variables and percentage of wet basins throughout the Prairie
Pothole Region of Canada and the United States. The region was divided into
three areas: parkland, Canadian grassland, and United States grassland (i.e.,
North Dakota and South Dakota). The models -- which included variables for spring
and fall temperature, yearly precipitation, the previous year's count of wet
basins, and for grassland areas, the previous fall precipitation -- accounted
for 63 to 65% of the variation in the number of wet basins. I then explored
the sensitivities of the models to changes in temperature and precipitation,
as might be associated with increased greenhouse gas concentrations. Parkland
wetlands are shown to be much more vulnerable to increased temperatures than
are wetlands in either Canadian or United States grasslands. Sensitivity to
increased precipitation did not vary geographically. These results have implications
for waterfowl and other wildlife populations that depend on availability of
wetlands in the parklands for breeding or during periods of drought in the southern
grasslands.
This resource is based on the following source (Northern Prairie Publication
0928):
Larson, Diane L. 1995. Effects of climate on numbers of northern
prairie wetlands. Climatic Change 30:169-180.
This resource should be cited as:
Larson, Diane L. 1995. Effects of climate on numbers of northern
prairie wetlands. Climatic Change 30:169-180. Jamestown, ND:
Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center Online.
http://www.npwrc.usgs.gov/resource/wetlands/climwet/index.htm
(Version 16JUL97).
Contents
Acknowledgments
I thank R. Greenwood, L. Igl, D. Johnson, J. Price, and two anonymous reviewers
for helpful comments on the manuscript and W. Newton for statistical advice.
J. Bladen kindly provided basin counts and transect locations. This study
would not have been possible without the dedicated work of Flyway Biologists
in Canada and the United States who conduct the annual aerial surveys.
*The U.S. Government right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty-free license in
and to any copyright is acknowledged.
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