Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center
The Insignificance of Statistical Significance Testing
By Douglas H. Johnson1
Abstract: Despite their wide use in scientific journals such as The
Journal of Wildlife Management, statistical hypothesis tests add very little
value to the products of research. Indeed, they frequently confuse the interpretation
of data. This paper describes how statistical hypothesis tests are often viewed,
and then contrasts that interpretation with the correct one. I discuss the arbitrariness
of P-values, conclusions that the null hypothesis is true, power analysis,
and distinctions between statistical and biological significance. Statistical
hypothesis testing, in which the null hypothesis about the properties of a population
is almost always known a priori to be false, is contrasted with scientific hypothesis
testing, which examines a credible null hypothesis about phenomena in nature.
More meaningful alternatives are briefly outlined, including estimation and
confidence intervals for determining the importance of factors, decision theory
for guiding actions in the face of uncertainty, and Bayesian approaches to hypothesis
testing and other statistical practices.
Key words: Bayesian approaches, confidence interval, null hypothesis,
P-value, power analysis, scientific hypothesis test, statistical hypothesis
test.
This resource is based on the following source (Northern Prairie Publication
1057):
Johnson, Douglas H. 1999. The Insignificance of Statistical Significance
Testing. Journal of Wildlife Management 63(3):763-772.
This resource should be cited as:
Johnson, Douglas H. 1999. The Insignificance of Statistical Significance
Testing. Journal of Wildlife Management 63(3):763-772. Jamestown,
ND: Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center Online.
http://www.npwrc.usgs.gov/resource/methods/statsig/index.htm
(Version 16SEP99).
Editor's Note: Doug Johnson received The Wildlife Society Award
for Outstanding Publication in Wildlife Ecology and Management, in the Article
Category for this paper. The award was conferred at the Society's annual
meeting, 13 September 2000, in Nashville, Tennessee.
| President of The Wildlife Society, Nova Silvy (right), presents
Doug Johnson (left) with the Outstanding Publication Award. |
Table of Contents
1 U.S. Geological Survey, Biological Resources Division, Northern
Prairie Wildlife Research Center, Jamestown, ND 58401, USA
E-mail: douglas_h_johnson@usgs.gov
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