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Impact of Red Fox Predation on the Sex Ratio of Prairie Mallards

Part Two: Using the Model to Predict Sex Ratios

We now use our model to seek answers to further questions. Specifically, in Part Two we ask how the sex ratio will change if fox populations increase or decrease, if mallard population levels vary, or if hunting regulations change the intensity or sex specificity of the harvest. Answers to such questions are only tentative, of course; modeling merely provides a guideline as to what to expect. In modifying our model for predictive purposes, we also made it more realistic by relieving some of the constraints that were necessary for the model in Part One. In our modification we developed submodels to generate appropriate values for the fox population, the male mallard population, and predation rates. We then determined how the sex ratio responded to changes in these quantities.

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