Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center
Impact of Red Fox Predation on the Sex Ratio of Prairie Mallards
Part Two: Using the Model to Predict Sex Ratios
We now use our model to seek answers to further questions. Specifically, in
Part Two we ask how the sex ratio will change if fox populations increase or
decrease, if mallard population levels vary, or if hunting regulations change
the intensity or sex specificity of the harvest. Answers to such questions are
only tentative, of course; modeling merely provides a guideline as to what to
expect. In modifying our model for predictive purposes, we also made it more
realistic by relieving some of the constraints that were necessary for the model
in Part One. In our modification we developed submodels to generate appropriate
values for the fox population, the male mallard population, and predation rates.
We then determined how the sex ratio responded to changes in these quantities.
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