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A Model of the Productivity of the Northern Pintail

Appendix B


Northern Pintail Productivity Model Sample Input and Output

Input parameters and variables for the pintail productivity model [Facsimile of computer screen with entered data.]

Title . . . . . :  STANDARD.BENCH
Habitat File:  \MM\HAB\STANDARD.HAB
Random Number Generator Seed: 84489

-----------------------INPUT PARAMETERS----------------------

 Seasonal brood survival rate= 0.7400
 Seasonal duckling survival rate= 0.5400
 Daily hen mortality rate=  0.0010
 Hen mortality rate given nest is destroyed=  0.0600

 This run uses 1000 birds of which 400 are young (sy) and 600 are adult (asy)

The actual breeding population is 1000 pairs.

This run does not use homing.

Water conditions are:

Day 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Mar                             8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
Apr 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7  
May 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
Jun 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6  
Jul 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Aug 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5                    

There are 17 habitats on map STANDARD CENTRAL

1.   CROPLANDFALLPLGR Availability=  0.229600
   Robel Changes:  125  0.01  159  5.00  18325.00  22025.00  22125.00
   Dmr changes:  114.0651  115.9999  116.2500  125.1000  164.0630

2.   CROPLANDFALLPLRO Availability=  0.066800
   Robel Changes: 170 0.01  22417.50  24022.50  24122.50  24222.50
   Dmr changes: 160.0651  161.9999  162.2500  170.1000  195.9999

3.   CROPLANDSTUBLGRN Availability=  0.077000
   Robel Changes:  110  3.00  111  0.01  140  0.01  163  5.00  18625.00
   Dmr changes: 110.0651  11.9999  112.2500  140.1000  164.0630 

4.   CROPLANDSTUBROCR  Availability=  0.022400
   Robel Changes: 100  2.50  111  0.01  170 0.01  24022.50  24122.50
   Dmr changes: 110.0651  111.9999  112.2500  170.1000  194.9999

5.   CROPLANDSUMRFALO  Availability=  0.091600
   Robel Changes: 60  1.50  152 3.50  153 0.01  168 0.01  220 0.01
   Dmr changes: 152.0651  153.9999  168.2500  178.2500  179.0651

6.   GRASLAND  Availability=  0.245700
   Robel Changes: 121  8.00  14513.00  22013.00  22113.00  22213.00
   Dmr changes: 121.0535  122.0535  123.0535  124.0535  124.0535

7.   GRASLANDWILDLIFE  Availability=  0.032600
   Robel Changes: 121  8.00  14513.00  22013.00  22113.00  22213.00
   Dmr changes: 121.0470  122.0470  123.0470  124.0470  124.0470

8.   HAYLAND  Availability=  0.030000
   Robel Changes: 110  8.00  17135.00  172  5.00  20120.00  202 5.00
   Dmr changes: 100.0651  145.0260  171.9000  172.1590  178.0400

9.   OTHER  Availability=  0.013300
   Robel Changes:  6017.00  14522.00  22022.00  22122.00  22222.00
   Dmr changes:  60.0680  220.0680  221.0680  222.0680  223.0680

10.  PLNTCOVR  Availability=  0.019900
   Robel Changes:  10515.00  15040.00  16040.00  17040.00  18040.00
   Dmr changes:  60.0490  100.0490  110.0490  120.0490  130.0490

11.  R OF WAY  Availability=  0.012100
   Robel Changes:  105  9.00  15220.00  18120.00  182  5.00  222  5.00
   Dmr changes:  105.0600  182.5000  183.0600  223.0600  224.0600

12.  SCRBLAND  Availability=  0.000700
   Robel Changes:  6017.00  14522.00  22022.00  22122.00  22222.00
   Dmr changes:  60.0680  220.0680  221.0680  222.0680  223.0680

13.  TEMP.WETLAND  Availability=  0.003600
   Robel Changes:  6012.00  14517.00  22017.00  22117.00  22217.00
   Dmr changes:  60.0700  220.0700  221.0700  222.0700  223.0700

14.  SEAS.WETLAND  Availability=  0.025500
   Robel Changes:  6012.00  14517.00  22017.00  22117.00  22217.00
   Dmr changes:  60.0700  220.0700  221.0700  222.0700  223.0700

15.  SEMI.WETLAND  Availability=  0.019100
   Robel Changes:  6012.00  14517.00  22017.00  22117.00  22217.00
   Dmr changes:  60.0700  220.0700  221.0700  222.0700  223.0700

16.  PERM.WETLAND  Availability=  0.002100
   Robel Changes:  6012.00  14517.00  22017.00  22117.00  22217.00
   Dmr changes:  60.0700  220.0700  221.0700  222.0700  223.0700

17.  WOODLAND  Availability=  0.011800
   Robel Changes:  6017.00  14522.00  22022.00  22122.00  22222.00
   Dmr changes:  60.0680  220.0680  221.0680  222.0680  223.0680
   Birds enter the area beginning on day         91
     and ending on day         131

Output from pintail productivity model
-----------------MODEL RESULTS---------------------------

Nests per hen =         1.9740
Hatch rate =         0.1348
Hen success rate =         0.2660
Estimated hen success rate (Cowardin and Johnson 1979) = 0.2850
Average clutch size =         7.9474
Summer mortality rate of hens (182 days ending 30 Sept.) = 0.2669
Recruitment rate = 0.4345 (Female recruits / Hens in spring)

Age ratio of females in the fall =     0.5927
Age ratio of males in fall         =     0.5213
Age ratio in the fall                 =     0.5547 (Recruits / Breeders in the fall)
Proportional population change index = 0.9339

In the nesting population, 400 of 1000 hens are yearlings.

Habitat # Nest w/ hatched
Clutches
Initiated Nests Nest Success Total Recru. Percent Recruits Density Index
1 13 206 0.0631 34 3.9125 0.3505
2 2 46 0.0435 8 0.9206 0.2690
3 4 88 0.0455 10 1.1507 0.4464
4 0 12 0.0000 0 0.0000 0.2093
5 5 116 0.0431 19 2.1864 0.4947
6 13 770 0.1727 441       50.748 1.2242
7 26 104 0.2500 87       10.0115 1.2462
8 18 119 0.1513 59 6.7894 1.5495
9 2 73 0.0274 8 0.9206 2.1440
10 27 96 0.2812 93       10.702 1.8844
11 4 44 0.0909 12 1.3809 1.4205
12 0 6 0.0000 0 0.0000 3.3482
13 1 11 0.0909 2 0.2301 1.1936
14 12 135 0.0889 40 4.6030 2.0680
15 9 67 0.1343 27 3.1070 1.3703
16 0 8 0.0000 0 0.0000 1.4881
17 10 73 0.1370 29 3.3372 2.4166
Total 266 1974   869    

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