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Factors Associated with Duck Nest Success
in the Prairie Pothole Region of Canada

Nest Success by Study Area

Nest success estimates for all species combined varied considerably among area-years (Table 10). Annual estimates were at or above the threshold level suggested for stability of mallard (Cowardin et al. 1985) and northern pintail populations (Klett et al. 1988) in 8 of 31 area-years (2 of 17 in parkland and 6 of 14 in prairie) and at or above the threshold level suggested for gadwall, blue-winged teal, and northern shoveler populations (Klett et al. 1988) in 4 area-years (1 in parkland and 3 in prairie). During 4 years on the Shamrock Study Area, estimates of nest success were at or above threshold levels for all of the 5 common species in 1982, for mallards and northern pintails in 1983, but for none of the species in 1984-85. We did not obtain an estimate of nest success as high as the threshold level for any of the 5 common species on the Hanley Study Area during 4 years of study. Average estimates of nest success overall for all area-years were near the level suggested for stability of mallard and northern pintail populations during 3 of 4 years, but below levels suggested for the other 3 common species in all 4 years.

Table 10. Estimates of nest success (%) from pooled annual averages (unweighted) for mallards, gadwalls, blue-winged teals, northern shovelers, and northern pintails on study areas in the Prairie Pothole Region of Canada.
Study area Nest success (%)
1982 1983 1984 1985
Parkland
Earl Grey - - - 13
Hanley 5 10 3 12
Hay Lakes - 11 12 -
Holden - 17 - -
Inchkeith - - 9a 11
Leask - - 12 11
Moore Park - 10 9 -
Penhold - - 5a 26
Yorkton - - - 13a
Prairie
Cartwright - 13 - -
Ceylon - 26 5 -
Craik - - 4a 5
Denzil - - 4 7
Gayford - - - 27
Goodwater - 15 - -
Shamrock 29 15 2 13a
Tichfield 17 - - -
Mean 17 15 7 14
aEstimate based on <5 species because breeding   population of>=1 species was not detected.
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