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Estimating Nest Success: When Mayfield Wins

Tables

Table 1. Daily survival rates on days of catastrophe (S1) and on other days (S2) used to obtain desired hatch rates for various combinations of nesting synchrony and dates of catastrophes.
Date of
catastrophe		 Low mortality High mortality
S1 S2 S1 S2
Low synchrony
1 May 0.40 0.997 0.0 0.965
11 May 0.65 0.997 0.0 0.975
20 May 0.75 0.997 0.05 0.990
31 May 0.70 0.997 0.0 0.985
10 June 0.50 0.997 0.0 0.970
High synchrony
1 May 0.0 0.994 0.0 0.995
6 May 0.50 0.997 0.0 0.965
11 May 0.70 0.997 0.05 0.990
16 May 0.75 0.997 0.25 0.990
20 May 0.75 0.997 0.20 0.990

 

Table 2. Conditions under which Mayfield and Apparent estimators of nest success are accurate (root mean squared error ≤ 0.05), according to timing of mortality, synchrony of nesting, and mortality rate. Number of searches is k, and index of detectability is θ.
Timing of mortality Nesting synchrony Mortality rate Acceptable conditions
Mayfield Apparent
k theta k theta
Constant low low 1
2-4		 ≥0.75
all		 1
2
3-4		 ≥0.75
≥0.50
≥0.25
Constant low high 1-2
3-4		 ≥0.50
all		 1-2
3-4		 ≥0.50
≥0.25
Constant high low 1-2 all 1
2		 ≥0.75
≥0.50
Constant high high 1-2 all 1-2 ≥0.50
Catastrophic low low none 1
2
3-4		 ≥0.75
≥0.50
≥0.25
Catastrophic low high none 1
2-4		 ≥0.50
≥0.25
Catastrophic high low none 1
2		 1.00
≥0.50
Catastrophic high high none 1
2		 ≥0.75
≥0.50

 

Table 3. Conditions under which Mayfield and Apparent estimators of number of nests are accurate (root mean squared error ≤ 15), according to timing of mortality, synchrony of nesting, and mortality rate. Number of searches is k, and index of detectability is θ.
Timing of mortality Nesting synchrony Mortality rate Acceptable conditions
Mayfield Apparent
k theta k theta
Constant low low 2
3-4		 ≥0.75
all		 2
3
4		 ≥0.75
≥0.50
≥0.25
Constant low high 4 ≥0.75 2
3
4		 1.00
≥0.75
≥0.50
Constant high low 1
2		 1.00
all		 1
2		 1.00
≥0.50
Canstant high high none 2 ≥0.75
Catastrophic low low none 2
3
4		 ≥0.75
≥0.50
≥0.25
Catastrophic low high none 2
3
4		 1.00
≥0.75
≥0.50
Catastrophic high low none 2 ≥0.75
Catastrophic high high none 2 ≥0.75

 

Table 4. Range in percentage of nests found in simulated searches of nest populations, according to nesting synchrony and number of searches, for all combinations of high and low mortality rates and constant and catastrophic mortality.
No. of
searches		 Detectability (θ)
0 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00
High synchrony
1 25-68 38-71 55-76 71-83 85-91
2 32-84 55-90 75-93 90-97 96-99
Low synchrony
1 14-61 25-65 45-70 59-73 73-80
2 32-83 54-86 74-90 87-93 92-97
3 51-89 71-92 85-94 92-97 95-98
4 56-90 77-95 89-97 94-99 98-99

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