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Breeding Population Inventories and Measures of Recruitment

II. Population Estimates

A. The Biological Basis of Estimators


Our definition of breeding population is in terms of breeding pairs, and when the hen is on the nest it becomes necessary to infer her presence from an observed drake. The methodology by which that inference has been made in local studies requires an intimate understanding of breeding biology and behavior of the species being counted. Dzubin (1969a:222) stressed the importance of understanding the behavior and social structure of a duck population when estimating the number of breeding pairs. In practice, census takers with this understanding are not always available and even if they are, as Dzubin points out, results will be somewhat subjective. The best approach is to set forth a set of rules of interpretation based on species behavior for each species being counted. Adherence to these rules will at least lend consistency and comparability to the data even if some biases remain. Dzubin (1969a) listed 10 classes of social groups to be recorded and discussed the biological rationale for assigning birds to the category "indicated breeding pairs." He used a mapping procedure to estimate the breeding population on his study area. He plotted the location of each pair, lone drake, and flock of five or fewer. If a pair or lone drake was seen on the same pond on three of four censuses, that pair was assigned to the breeding population. Danell and Sjoberg (1979) used the same technique in Sweden. This method, though probably accurate, is too time-consuming except for detailed studies of local areas. Usually breeding pair estimates are derived from one or two censuses of sample plots or transects. Hammond (1969) developed a set of guidelines for use along belt transects in the north-central United States. His interpretation of social groups is similar to that of Dzubin, but he simplified the rules. Unlike Dzubin, who recommended estimating diving duck pairs from numbers of nests, Hammond estimated indicated breeding pairs of diving ducks from social groups. After publication of the papers by Dzubin (1969a) and Hammond (1969), waterfowl investigators tended to follow the rules of one or the other.

Some investigators (e.g., Stewart and Kantrud 1973) used a combination of the rules set forth in those papers. Sauder et al. (1971) used only lone males and pairs to calculate estimated breeding pairs. Like Dzubin, they concluded that several counts were necessary to increase reliability of breeding pair estimates. The guidelines set forth by Hammond were used originally in operational surveys of refuge lands in the United States. Recently, local managers have tended to modify the procedures because of unique local problems or insufficient funds. The outcome of these minor changes has been that results among studies, areas, or years are not strictly comparable.

A number of other biologists used Dzubin's method of estimating breeding populations of ducks, especially diving ducks, from a count of nests. In a study of reproduction of Black Ducks and Eiders on the St. Lawrence River (Milne and Reed 1974, Reed 1975), the number of nests found in a complete search of the study area was used to estimate the breeding population. Isakov (1963) used nest counts to estimate the number of breeding ducks on islands in the Black Sea. Nest searches are generally too time-consuming for operational surveys. Sugden and Butler (1980) considered nest counts for diving ducks impractical and recommended using pairs plus lone males to estimate breeding Canvasbacks and total females to estimate breeding pairs of Redheads.

The assumptions underlying use of nests as an estimator of breeding population present additional problems. It is necessary to assume that all nests are found, and some hens have more than one nest. In addition, if only a portion or even none of the population actually nests, the breeding population as we have defined it would be severely underestimated. The method would require that breeding population be defined as hens that have at least one nest, and a correction for renesting would be required.

Use of lone males to indicate the presence of a breeding female (assumed to be on a nest) can introduce a serious bias in populations with a preponderance of males, as is typically the case with diving ducks (Dzubin 1969a, Erskine 1971). Dzubin recommended correcting population counts for unbalanced sex ratios, but estimates of sex ratio require detailed field studies that may not be available for operational surveys.

Definition of breeding population for a local area requires that transient and breeding birds be distinguished. Smith and Hawkins (1948) arbitrarily divided total birds counted by 2.5 to account for the presence of nonresident birds on transects. Ducks also move among ponds during the day and may be found on one class of pond during the middle of the day and on other classes during the morning and evening (Klett and Kirsch 1976, Longcore and Ringelman 1980). This behavior can cause biases because visibility varies among pond classes. Individual hens change social status as the season progresses. Breeding birds can be separated from migrants to some extent by timing of the census. Counts made too early or too late will be seriously biased because they may contain a high proportion of migrant birds, or birds that have already attempted to breed may have left the local area. In addition, the proper time for conducting pair surveys varies among species, years, and locations. Dzubin (1969a:219) treated this subject in detail and made recommendations based on extensive field data. Kauppinen (1983) investigated many of the same factors studied by Dzubin and made recommendations for the best timing of census periods for ducks in Finland. Dzubin set two counts as a minimum but recommended an average of four or five counts. Where only trends are required, Hammond (1969) suggested that a single count would suffice. Single counts of breeding ducks are frequently used, however, to estimate the breeding population, a procedure that can lead to highly biased estimates.

Timing of census presents less of a problem for geese because most species nest in colonies in the northernmost part of their range, and breeding birds are not confused with migrants. Malecki et al. (1981) planned their survey of Canada Geese in northern Manitoba for late in the nesting cycle to minimize inclusion of subadults. King (1982) recommended that swans in Alaska be counted between mid-May and June when most of the females are incubating and can be seen from the air, or in August when young are large enough to be counted from the air.


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